There will be numerous articles written in the coming weeks and months concerning beef trade. The focus of these articles will be declining beef exports from the United States and an increase in beef imports. Some of these articles will be all about facts while others will use their few lines to generate ideas and thoughts that may or may not be true. In some instances, these articles will get folks in the cattle business in an uproar concerning how beef imports are killing the domestic market and how the inability to export beef is not good for the industry. However, hopefully this article will outline the current import and export market and why imports are increasing and exports are decreasing.

January 2024 beef and veal imports totaled 503.6 million pounds on a carcass weight basis compared to 306.4 million pounds in December 2023 and 364.7 million pounds in January 2023. Beef from Brazil accounted for 155.4 million pounds of the January total or nearly 31 percent. Australia and Canada were the next two largest sources of beef imports with 96.5 and 91.9 million pounds, respectively, while New Zealand accounted for 63.4 million pounds and Mexico for 48.1 million pounds. These five countries make up more than 90 percent of beef imports to the United States. Most of the beef being imported is lean grinding beef, which will be used in numerous ground beef products.

Some important facts to mention here is that Brazilian imports in January increased nearly 51 million pounds compared to January 2023, but imports from Brazil will quickly decline as import quota tariffs will discourage imports from Brazil. Australian imports increased 62 million pounds compared to January 2023 while New Zealand imports increased more than 37 million pounds compared to the same month one year ago. The expectation is for Australia and New Zealand to continue pushing beef into the high prices US beef market. Lastly, imports are primarily increasing for two reasons. The first is because of reduced beef production domestically and the second is because of higher domestic beef prices. When less is produced, more must be imported to fulfill what is demanded. When prices are high, more countries want to sell into the higher priced market.

From the export side, beef and veal exports totaled 232.6 million pounds on a carcass weight basis, which was nearly 20 million pounds less than the previous month and more than 10 million pounds less January 2023. Japan and South Korea were the two largest trading partners in January with exports to Japan totaling 55.8 million pounds and South Korea accounting for 51.1 million pounds, which make up nearly 46 percent of total beef and veal exports. The third largest destination was China at 31.7 million pounds, but aggregating China, Taiwan and Hong Kong results in nearly 48.9 million pounds of beef or 21 percent of total beef and veal exports. Mexico was not too far behind China at 31.1 million pounds or 13 percent of beef exports while Canada accounted for 18.9 million pounds or a little over 8 percent of total beef and veal exports.

The primary beef trading partners on the export side are not expected to change as Japan, South Korea, China, Mexico, and Canada have been fairly consistent partners. What can be expected is a continued decline in beef and veal exports simply because of reduced production. When less is produced, there is less to export. At the same time, as beef prices continue to escalate or at a minimum stay at their elevated position, purchasing beef from countries other than the United States will be more attractive. The one thing going for the United States is that Canada is the only other country that produces a similar type beef.

Now the facts are settled, readers of this article and of other articles should not get excited when there is significant discussion concerning increasing imports and decreasing exports. If cattle prices increase or decrease, it is highly unlikely international beef trade was the sole influencer in either direction. International trade certainly influences the domestic market, but in most instances, it is a market price supporter and provides incentive to producer higher quality beef. So, if the sky begins to fall because of beef imports and exports, then ask the Lord to lower the earth at the same speed.